By Heidi Macomber · October 13, 2026
Holiday pre-orders are opening. Run this math before you say yes to any of them.
Between now and the end of December, cottage bakers and small kitchens will field the same question dozens of times: "Are you taking pie orders for Thanksgiving?" The money in holiday season is real, and so is the trap. It is easy to say yes to every order in October and discover in the third week of November that the math never worked. Here is the math to run first, using one pie and one cookie tray as the examples. Ingredient prices are examples from a typical 2026 grocery run; swap in your own receipts.
The per-unit cost, before anything else
Take a 9-inch pumpkin pie, the workhorse of the season. Count everything that goes into it:
- Pumpkin (one 15 oz can): $2.29
- Evaporated milk (one 12 oz can): $1.69
- Eggs (2): $0.66
- Sugar (3/4 cup): $0.29
- Spices and salt: $0.35
- All-butter crust (flour, butter, water): $1.22
That is $6.50 in ingredients for one pie. At a $26 farmers market price, that is a 25% food cost, and $19.50 left over from each pie to pay for your time, your oven, your packaging, and your booth or delivery. If your ingredient total comes out higher, the pie price has to rise with it. The food cost percentage tells you whether the price kept up with your ingredient costs. The leftover dollars have a name: contribution dollars. That $19.50 is what one pie contributes toward every cost besides ingredients, and once those costs are covered, what remains is your pay.
A cookie tray goes through the same math. A 4-dozen assorted tray with $18 of ingredients and $2.50 of tray and wrap costs $20.50 all in. At $44, that is 47% food cost, which is normal for cookies, with $23.50 of contribution. The percentage looks worse than the pie and the dollars look better. Holiday decisions should be made on both numbers, side by side.
Deposits are part of the math
A holiday pre-order is an agreement built on two promises: the customer promises to come back and pay, and you promise to have the order baked and set aside. A 50% deposit, collected when the order is placed, does three things: it covers your ingredient shopping before you spend a Saturday baking, it filters out the maybes, and it settles the abandonment problem before it exists, because every baker who takes orders without one eventually bakes for someone who never shows up to pick up. If taking deposits feels awkward, fold it into the ordering step: "I can hold that for you with half down, and the balance is due at pickup."
Your oven is the real order cap
The most common holiday failure is counting orders and never counting oven hours. Your real capacity for the season is the number of oven slots you can fill, and that number can be counted before you take a single order:
- Pies per slot: 2 (a standard home oven fits two 9-inch pies comfortably)
- Time per slot: about 75 minutes with rotation and rest
- Slots per bake day: 8 in a ten-hour day if nothing else is happening, 5 or 6 in a realistic one
Two pies per slot, six slots, across the four bake days before Thanksgiving is 48 pies. That number is your order cap. When the requests pass it, the answer is a waitlist for the next pickup day. A fifth bake day at 2 a.m. is the other option, and it costs you sleep in the busiest week of your year. Food trucks and caterers run the identical calculation with fryer baskets, sheet pans, or cooler space standing in for oven slots.
Write every order the same way
Quantity, flavors, pickup day and time window, deposit collected, balance due. Give each order its own line, and keep every line in the same single place: one notebook or one spreadsheet. Disputes shrink to zero when the pickup window was written down at order time, and the busiest week of your year is the wrong time to be reconstructing what someone thinks they ordered in a Facebook comment thread.
Run the per-unit cost, set the deposit rule, count the oven slots, and open the order book with a cap on it. The season pays better when it ends on time.
Related Guides
- A Bulk Order Lands in Your Inbox. Here Is the Math Before You Say Yes. - The same say-yes math for one big order instead of a season of pre-orders
- You Just Got Your Cottage Food License. Here Is the Math to Do Before Your First Market - Pricing math for cottage bakers starting out
- How to Price Baked Goods: A Guide for Cottage Food Operators - Setting base prices for baked goods
Stop guessing what your dishes cost.
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